feat: Add core trading modules for risk management, backtesting, and execution algorithms, alongside a new ML transparency widget and related frontend dependencies.
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# Risk Management Architecture
## Overview
The risk management system provides comprehensive risk control mechanisms including position sizing, stop-loss management, drawdown limits, Value at Risk (VaR) calculation, and portfolio correlation analysis.
## Components
### Position Sizing
**Location**: `src/risk/position_sizing.py`
**Methods**:
- **Standard Position Sizing**: Percentage-based with fee accounting
- **Kelly Criterion**: Optimal position sizing with fractional Kelly (configurable)
- **Volatility-Adjusted**: ATR-based position sizing (lower vol = larger positions)
- **Regime-Aware**: Adjusts position size based on market regime
- **Confidence-Based**: ML model confidence-adjusted position sizing
**Usage**:
```python
from src.risk.position_sizing import PositionSizingManager
sizer = PositionSizingManager()
# Standard sizing
quantity = sizer.calculate_size(symbol, price, balance, risk_percent)
# Kelly Criterion (fractional)
kelly_pct = sizer.calculate_kelly_criterion(win_rate=0.6, avg_win=100, avg_loss=50, fractional=0.25)
# Volatility-adjusted
quantity = sizer.calculate_volatility_adjusted_size(symbol, price, balance, volatility_multiplier=0.8)
# Regime-aware
quantity = sizer.calculate_regime_aware_size(symbol, price, balance, market_regime="trending_up")
```
### Value at Risk (VaR)
**Location**: `src/risk/var_calculator.py`
**Methods**:
1. **Historical VaR**: Uses historical portfolio returns distribution
2. **Parametric VaR**: Assumes normal distribution (variance-covariance method)
3. **Monte Carlo VaR**: Simulates future returns using estimated parameters
4. **Conditional VaR (CVaR)**: Expected loss given that loss exceeds VaR
**Usage**:
```python
from src.risk.var_calculator import get_var_calculator
var_calc = get_var_calculator()
# Calculate all methods
results = await var_calc.calculate_all_var_methods(
portfolio_value=Decimal("10000.0"),
confidence_level=0.95,
holding_period_days=1
)
# Individual methods
historical_var = await var_calc.calculate_historical_var(...)
parametric_var = await var_calc.calculate_parametric_var(...)
monte_carlo_var = await var_calc.calculate_monte_carlo_var(...)
cvar = await var_calc.calculate_cvar(...)
```
### Portfolio Correlation Analysis
**Location**: `src/portfolio/correlation_analyzer.py`
**Features**:
- Correlation matrix calculation for portfolio symbols
- Diversification scoring (lower correlation = better)
- Concentration risk analysis
- Correlation-based position limits
**Usage**:
```python
from src.portfolio.correlation_analyzer import get_correlation_analyzer
analyzer = get_correlation_analyzer()
# Analyze current portfolio
analysis = await analyzer.analyze_portfolio_correlation(paper_trading=True)
# Check correlation limits before adding position
allowed, reason = await analyzer.check_correlation_limits(
symbol="ETH/USD",
new_position_value=Decimal("1000.0"),
max_correlation=0.8
)
```
### Stop-Loss Management
**Location**: `src/risk/stop_loss.py`
Provides dynamic stop-loss adjustment and management.
### Risk Limits
**Location**: `src/risk/limits.py`
Manages:
- Daily loss limits
- Maximum drawdown limits
- Portfolio allocation limits
### Risk Manager
**Location**: `src/risk/manager.py`
Orchestrates all risk management components and provides unified risk checking interface.
This document describes the risk management system.
## Risk Management Components